Crime stats and KPIs

As evidence that an increasing number of police stations have manipulated their crime statistics comes to light the reputation of SAPS is increasingly undermined. Police station's reluctance to ensure that all crimes were recorded first became evident shortly after the lifting of the moratorium on crime statistics some years ago. Allegedly some victims were then discouraged from reporting crimes by being incovenienced. Complainants were then, for example, told to return at a later date because the required forms were not available. These incoveniences have seemingly escalated to far more blatant acts of fraud and deception in which documents were systematically misplaced or destroyed. Sources within the SAPS indicate that up to seventy percent of stations are suspected of "manipulating" their crime statistics.

Obviously every such report casts further doubt on the veracity of the official crime statistics. However the real culprit in the saga are not the police stations or officers that have zealously (albeit fraudulently) attempted to show that crime rates are declining. Responsibility for the situation rests squarely on the powers that have decided that the number of crimes reported in a precinct reflects the performance of that station. For example, police stations are currently expected to show a seven to ten percent reduction in the number of serious crimes reported each year. Failure to meet this target reflects poorly on the performance of the station and impacts negatively on the promotion prospects of members, their bonuses and even their professional standing among their peers.

Unfortunately the primary determinants of crime levels are social, economic, cultural or even moral. The police are unable to systematically change any of these determinants and thus cannot determine the number of crimes that take place within their precincts. Holding the stations to account when the “performance” targets are not met is a bit like holding them to account for rainfall levels. Neither the amount of rain that fell nor the number of murders, serious assaults, rapes etc. can be taken to reflect on station performance. Using the number of crimes reported as a measure of the efficacy of the station invites members to change that one factor they do have control of – the number of offences recorded. The police are given an incentive to discourage victims from reporting crimes.

Once a complaint is lodged the police now have an incentive not to record the allegation on the CAS system or, alternatively, to reflect the offence as lesser crime that are not taken into account as a performance measure . The latter tendency explains why, in recent years, the increase in the number of culpable homicides has mirrored the declining number of murders. The trend may not be a reflection of fewer murders but of a greater preparedeness on the recording officer to form the opinion that the perpetrator did not intend to kill. The difference in the inferred intention allows the killing to be classified as “culpable homicide” which no longer impacts negatively on the stations performance target. There are many other such opportunities for the manipulation of the crime statistics should police management allow it. The scant information available about the most recent manipulations indicate that 30 to 40 percent of serious offences are not being reflected in those police stations crime statistics. An untold (and probably higher) number of offences are being categorised as lesser offences.

Those who defend the use of crime stats as a performance measure sometimes acknowledge the shortcomings but suggest that the number of crimes is the best available measure of whether or not the stations are doing their job. The performance measure is believed to compel the local police to locate resources to those areas where they are most likely to prevent serious offences from taking place. The attitude also undermines the notion that increased reporting of offences reflects better access to, and the increased legitmacy the police. Unfortunately it is the current business-minded approach to performance that will result in the SAPS battling to reestablish their credibility in the one field where they have should have indisputable authority - crime statistics.