Projections for 2016 local government elections

Before the promises are made, campaigning starts and voter–behaviour surveys begin the only way to predict elections outcomes hold is to examine the past behaviour of voters. The projection of past patterns gives insight into what South Africans can expect when the local government election takes place in the third quarter of 2016. While projections offers an indication as what to expect from the election it should be borne in mind that the objective of election campaigns is largely to alter the expected outcome.

A clear signal of voter intentions for 2016 was already given by the 2014 National/ Provincial election. By extrapolating the changes in voting patterns between the last local government election (2011) and 2014 we can predict that some changes are in the offing for 2016. In particular the ANC can expect declines of about four percent support in Gauteng, the North West province and the Eastern Cape. These declines will be partly offset by a similar percentage gain in ANC vote share in kwaZulu-Natal. The largest movements in votes will be evident in the cities.

In general the ANC can expect to receive a significantly reduced proportion of the votes cast in metropolitan areas and several other cities. As far back as the 2014 National/ Provincial elections the ANC received less than half the proportional representation (PR) votes cast in Nelson Mandela Bay. As that was not a municipal election it did not make any difference to the composition of the metropolitan council then. The changes in support profile are likely to impact on the composition of the municipal council now.

The forecasts indicate that the ANC, while retaining its minority vote share in Cape Town, will lose the absolute majority it currently holds in:

• Nelson Mandela Bay,
• Tshwane and
• Johannesburg.

In these three metropoles the ANC will continue to be the single largest political party but will need the support of opposition councillors to set budgets, pass motions, and enact by-laws. After the election the ANC will hold an absolute majority in only four of the eight metropoles.

The ANC is also likely to lose its absolute majority in other municipalities which are highly urbanised. These include:

• Randfontein,
• Kouga,
• Thabazimbi and
• Rustenburg.

In Rustenburg the ANC majority, which stood at over three-quarters of votes cast before 2011, has since been whittled away by the opposition – in particular by the EFF.

However the election also portends important gains for the ANC particularly in kwaZulu-Natal. Overall the ANC is set to gain absolute majorities in another 28 municipalities. In almost all of the 28 municipalities the ANC is currently the largest political party, albeit one with less than 50% of popular support. After 2016 election the ANC may well no longer need the support of the opposition to pass budgets and by-laws. While most of the 28 municipalities are in kwaZulu-Natal a handful are in the Western and Northern Cape.

In six of the 28 municipalities the ANC stands to win the municipality from another political party. These include winning (from the IFP):

• Nkandla and
• Mthonjeni.

Further south the ANC seems to win several municipalities currently dominated by the DA. These are:

• Bitou,
• Laingsburg,
• Hessequa and
• Witzenberg.

Exactly how the changing vote patterns impact on the composition of elected councils depends on both how the PR votes are apportioned between wards and the second leg of the election (the election of ward councillors directly). It seems that while a marginal change in the political alignment of larger cities is indicated these changes may have a deep impact on the quality of their governance. Until then each of the political parties will strive to ensure that the outcomes are better than what is expected now.

Detailed results are available at: Projections of ANC support in 2016 municipal elections.