Thursday, April 26, 2012

South Africa and BRICsa - fading to nothing?

South Africa recently became the latest member of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, Indian and China) group of economies. Membership of BRIC should carry, if anything, at least the promise of rapid economic growth.  Unfortunately South Africa however has not been playing in the same league as the original members of BRIC in either terms of size or the rate of economic growth. This point can best be illustrated by contrasting South Africa and China (the biggest economy in BRICSA).

In 2011, according to Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) the Gross Domestic product (GDP) of China was US$ 7,298,147 million. By contrast the South African GDP was a "mere" US$ 408,074 million.

The major imbalance is highlighted by differential growth rates. In 2011 the growth rate of China may fall to as low as 8% per annum. South Africa, by contrast, would be fortunate to reach 4% growth. Using these figures it is easy to see that the Chinese economy will grow by US$ 583,851 million. This is 37 percent greater than the entire South African GDP -  even when accounting for the 4% growth rate. In other words the growth of the Chinese economy alone exceeds, each year,  the size of the South African economy. This discrepancy will be aggravated by the big differences in annual growth rates. These factors will ensure that, should current trends continue, South Africa will become an ever less significant part of BRICSA each year.

However being (relatively) small is not a measure of potential and, past growth is not an indication of what will happen in the future. What is an indication of potential are the policies and practices of the respective governments. China epitomises the "developmental state" a label South Africa statesmen adopt at every opportunity. The defining feature of the developmental state is its prioirtisation of economic growth. In other words these economies prioritize growth above other factors like government control and even, other things being equal, profitability.

It is here where South Africa hamstrings itself by prioritising the political agenda of the ruling party above economic growth - even while stating that economic development is its primary objective. In essence economic growth is subverted by a political agenda which seeks greater control of the economy by central government while refashioning the racial profile of the social and economic  landscape - even as this agenda undermines service delivery and economic development.