Before
the promises are made, campaigning starts and voter–behaviour
surveys begin the only way to predict elections outcomes hold is to
examine the past behaviour of voters. The projection of past patterns gives insight
into what South Africans can expect when the local government
election takes place in the third quarter of 2016. While projections offers an indication as what to expect from the election it should be
borne in mind that the objective of election campaigns is largely to
alter the expected outcome.
A
clear signal of voter intentions for 2016 was already given by the
2014 National/ Provincial election. By extrapolating the changes in
voting patterns between the last local government election (2011) and
2014 we can predict that some changes are in the offing for 2016. In
particular the ANC can expect declines of about four percent support
in Gauteng, the North West province and the Eastern Cape. These
declines will be partly offset by a similar percentage gain in ANC
vote share in kwaZulu-Natal. The largest movements in votes will be
evident in the cities.
In
general the ANC can expect to receive a significantly reduced
proportion of the votes cast in metropolitan areas and several other
cities. As far back as the 2014 National/ Provincial elections the
ANC received less than half the proportional representation (PR)
votes cast in Nelson Mandela Bay. As that was not a municipal
election it did not make any difference to the composition of the
metropolitan council then. The changes in support profile are likely
to impact on the composition of the municipal council now.
The
forecasts indicate that the ANC, while retaining its minority vote
share in Cape Town, will lose the absolute majority it currently
holds in:
- Nelson Mandela Bay,
- Tshwane and
- Johannesburg.
In
these three metropoles the ANC will continue to be the single largest
political party but will need the support of opposition councillors
to set budgets, pass motions, and enact by-laws. After the election
the ANC will hold an absolute majority in only four of the eight
metropoles.
The
ANC is also likely to lose its absolute majority in other
municipalities which are highly urbanised. These include:
- Randfontein,
- Kouga,
- Thabazimbi and
- Rustenburg.
In
Rustenburg the ANC majority, which stood at over three-quarters of
votes cast before 2011, has since been whittled away by the
opposition – in particular by the EFF.
However
the election also portends important gains for the ANC particularly
in kwaZulu-Natal. Overall the ANC is set to gain absolute majorities
in another 28 municipalities. In almost all of the 28 municipalities
the ANC is currently the largest political party, albeit one with
less than 50% of popular support. After 2016 election the ANC may
well no longer need the support of the opposition to pass budgets and
by-laws. While most of the 28 municipalities are in kwaZulu-Natal a
handful are in the Western and Northern Cape.
In
six of the 28 municipalities the ANC stands to win the municipality
from another political party. These include winning (from the IFP):
- Nkandla and
- Mthonjeni.
Further
south the ANC seems to win several municipalities currently dominated
by the DA. These are:
- Bitou,
- Laingsburg,
- Hessequa and
- Witzenberg.
Exactly
how the changing vote patterns impact on the composition of elected
councils depends on both how the PR votes are apportioned between
wards and the second leg of the election (the election of ward
councillors directly). It seems that while a marginal change in the
political alignment of larger cities is indicated these changes may
have a deep impact on the quality of their governance. Until then
each of the political parties will strive to ensure that the outcomes
are better than what is expected now.
Detailed results are available at: Projections of ANC support in 2016 municipal elections.
