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The results of the 2011 South African census were release in November 2011. The top-line results revealed a few surprises including a higher than expected population growth rate. The population total of 51.7 million was 2.5 percent greater than StatsSA's mid-year population estimates for that year. This indicates a population 1.2 million more than anticipated.
Apparently the census also indicates an increase in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) which rose to 2.7 from the 2.5 of a decade earlier. Apparently an increase in TFR typified all the major population groups classified in the census. While an eight percent increase in TFR may not appear unduly worrisome it actually has has profound implications for our understanding of development. In terms of Demographic Transition Theory an increase in TFR (and by implication in the IMR) indicates a society under great stress. Recent examples of such increase include war-time Afghanistan and Zambia under the IMF structural adjustment programme. The IMF's structural adjustment programmes greatly restricted access to health services in Zambia allowing for massive increased in mortality and fertility rates.
According to StatsSA the past ten years in South Africa has been marked by just such trauma. Part of the trauma is related to the impact of HIV/AIDS on the dominant population group. HIV/AIDS may have resulted in the observed increase in mortality rates. In response families were prompted to having a greater number of children giving rise to higher TFR.
However the data revealed by StatsSA shows that the increase in family size has primarily taken place in the past past five years. The graphic below shows the marked increase in the youngest five year age cohort.
The last five years has coincided with the period in which the impact of HIV/AIDS was greatly reduced by widespread uptake of AVRs. HIV/Aids thus offers an unconvincing argument for the increase in TFR.
The results of the census thus either confirm that a) South African society has been under such profound stress that the Demographic Transition has been reversed or b) a more mundane answer lies in the quality of StatsSA's tallying.
